Sam J. Tangredi

Futures of War: a Consensus View of the Future Security Environment, 2010-2035 Sam J. Tangredi

No defense planning can be effective without a rigorous assessment of the future security environment. Futures of War is designed to give readers a comprehensive view of the future international security environment and policymakers a firm foundation for future defense planning. Author Sam J. Tangredi analyzes the perspectives of federal agencies, military services, war colleges, NGOs, public committees, think-tanks, and individual experts, to fashion a consensus assessment of the future of American national security in the years 2010-2035. His approach is completely unique in the highly individualistic field of futures research. Forty studies are evaluated using representative source content analysis to develop points of agreement or divergence, which in turn are subjected to validation by almost 400 other expert sources. Dissenting sources are identified for every point of agreement in order to ensure alternative viewpoints are heard. Both (or more) sides of the points of divergence are evaluated. Additionally, wild cards and unlikely events are detailed in order to determine the need for hedging strategies and to avoid the potential hazard of group-think among defense planners. The final product is a baseline planning scenario and hedging strategies. The book also discusses the varying techniques of futures analysis and the practical limits to the use of future research in policymaking. As concerns the study of the future security environment, Futures of War proves through its consensus technique that the whole can truly be greater than the sum of its parts.