Jeffrey A. Onsted

The South Coast Participation Experience: a Modification and Application of the Forrester Model to the South Coast of Santa Barbara County Jeffrey A. Onsted

This monograph describes the application of an urban processes model to the South Coast of Santa Barbara County. Called SCOPE (South Coast Outlook and Participation Experience), it is theoretically based on the nonlinear feedback loops and urban relationships innovated by Jay W. Forrester. It is greatly modified from his model, however, per the concerns of many of his critics. The model, which uses Stella modeling software, does not provide a projection or even one single forecast. Rather, it is capable of producing any number of forecasts according to policy switches and dials that the user may manipulate. Given similar assumptions, though, the forecasts indicate less population growth than other county and city agencies. The results of this modeling, therefore, could be of great use for discussion directed at policy decisions.